Housing starts in Canada increased 5.6 per cent year-over-year on a raw annual basis, to 259,028 in 2025, from 245,367 in 2024. This is a meaningful improvement but it is not, on its own, a signal of broad-based acceleration. For businesses that depend on residential construction for demand, like those in the flooring industry, the more practical question is how much of this improvement shows up in the late-year pipeline and where the activity is concentrated.
In population centres above 100,000, starts rose 12.5 per cent in the fourth quarter to 57,746, compared to 51,348 in the same period in 2024. Month-by-month, the quarter strengthened as it progressed, with the most pronounced year-over-year lift occurring in December. This kind of year-end acceleration can reflect multiple forces, including project timing, financing decisions made earlier in the year and developers pushing to break ground before year-end thresholds. While a signal worth tracking, it should be interpreted as momentum that requires confirmation in subsequent quarters.
Completions in those same large population centres also rose but more modestly. Fourth quarter completions increased 7.3 per cent to 56,320, from 52,493 in 2024. Although a rising starts line can be encouraging, completions are the nearer-term confirmation that projects are actually moving through to the stages that generate purchase orders for interior components.
Product Mix Shift
Across Q4 data, the clearest structural signal is a shift toward multi-family construction, up 16.5 per cent, compared to single and semi-detached starts, which fell by 8.3 per cent. This is not a minor compositional detail. It changes the type of work in the pipeline, procurement ecosystem and timing profile of demand for interior components.
Even if one ignores the absolute totals and focuses only on direction, the message is consistent. Starts growth is being carried by multi-family formats, while lowrise starts are contracting.
Completions reinforce that point in large population centres. Fourth quarter completions by dwelling type show single and semi-detached completions essentially flat, while multi-family completions increased by 11.1 per cent.
This pairing is important. It is one thing to see more multi-family starts and another to see more multi-family completions. When both are moving up, it suggests that higher-density production is not just being initiated; it is being delivered at a higher rate in the most relevant urban markets.
Provincial and Municipal Breakdown
Ontario’s Q4 2025 starts totalled 16,450, placing it at a scale comparable to Quebec. However, Ontario’s census metropolitan area (CMA)-level performance was not uniform and instead looked more like a set of distinct submarkets moving in different directions.
The operating takeaway is that Ontario cannot be treated as one demand line. Percentage-wise, Toronto was essentially stable (+3.3), Ottawa-Gatineau strengthened (+22), and several mid-sized markets moved sharply in either direction: Hamilton (+57.6), St. Catharines-Niagara (+127.6), Guelph (+168.7), Belleville-Quinte West (+66.3), Oshawa (+92.4), Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (-26.3), London (-39.9), Barrie (-76.7), Windsor (-8.6), Kingston (-66.5), Peterborough (-74.5), Thunder Bay (-71.9), and Brantford (-14.5).
For a flooring business serving Ontario, the risk is not simply ‘Ontario up or down,’ but customer concentration in specific CMAs that may be contracting even while others expand. The opportunity is similarly local, with certain corridors showing meaningful gains that can support selective growth.
Quebec’s Q4 2025 starts totalled 16,438, essentially equal to Ontario’s total in the provincial context. Within Quebec, the standout was Montreal, which drove the provincial story in Q4.
Quebec’s pattern is best described as concentrated strength. Percentage-wise, Montreal’s increase (+66.2) was large enough to influence provincial totals and supplier prospects, while secondary markets were mixed: Quebec City (+18.3), Sherbrooke (-17.3), Saguenay (-46.8), Trois-Rivières (+56.9), and Drummondville (+42.7).
For flooring businesses, this argues for a Montreal-centred strategy, if Quebec is a priority, with a cautious approach to smaller centres where starts may be contracting.
British Columbia’s Q4 2025 starts totalled 9,946. The provincial total can obscure the practical reality that Vancouver remains the dominant market and it weakened in Q4, down 10.5 per cent. At the same time, Kelowna’s increase of 280.5 per cent is large, and it may be locally meaningful for flooring businesses positioned for the province’s interior. Still, base effects matter. Percentage gains on small starting values can look dramatic without necessarily translating into sustained, broad demand. For firms considering British Columbia, the conclusion is not ‘B.C. down.’ It is B.C. uneven, with coastal softness and interior volatility. Percentage-wise, this looks like Victoria (-2.8), Abbotsford (+11.4), Chilliwack (-45.4), Nanaimo (-61.6), and Kamloops (-79).
The Q4 2025 Prairie subtotal was 15,763, broken out as Alberta 12,470, Saskatchewan 1,371, and Manitoba 1,922. The CMA breakdown shows that Prairie performance is stable overall, but with important differences between Alberta’s largest markets and some smaller Prairie centres.
Alberta’s annual starts reported very strong; however, the two largest CMAs were slightly down — Calgary experienced a loss of 2.4 per cent, and Edmonton 3.4 per cent. That does not negate the province’s importance, but it does suggest that late-year momentum in the major metros was not as strong as in some eastern markets.
Meanwhile, Saskatoon strengthened (+34.6 per cent), Winnipeg was steady (+4.9 per cent), and smaller Alberta centres posted increases from small bases. For instance, Lethbridge and Red Deer saw starts rise 25 per cent and 70 per cent year-over-year, respectively.
For flooring businesses, the Prairie picture supports a cautious, selective approach. The region offers scale, particularly through Alberta, but the Q4 CMA data suggests mixed near-term conditions in the largest cities and pockets of growth elsewhere.
The Q4 2025 Atlantic subtotal was 4,541, with Nova Scotia 2,186, New Brunswick 1,820, Prince Edward Island 194, and Newfoundland and Labrador 341. In absolute terms, the region is smaller, but the CMA data indicates strong dynamism in specific markets.
Percentage-wise, Halifax is the clear growth engine in Q4 (+108.7), with Fredericton (+116.5) and Saint John, N.B., (+51.5) also posting a sharp increase from a smaller base. Moncton, N.B., declined (-13.6), and St. John’s, Nfld., was essentially flat (+1.4).
For flooring businesses, the Atlantic region can be attractive when aligned with the right submarkets and customer networks, but it requires precision. The region’s smaller totals also mean that a single project cycle can materially influence quarterly numbers.
What the Data Signals
Product mix is changing the nature of demand and geography is determining whether demand exists at all in the near-term. Flooring businesses will be better served by planning province-by-province, rather than CMA-by-CMA, aligning capacity and product strategy to multi-family workflows where the data indicates growth, and avoiding assumptions that a national increase will translate evenly into every local order book.
Tyler Holt is the editor of Wood Industry magazine. He has a master’s degree in literature and publication, and years of experience in the publishing and digital media industry. His main area of study is the effect of digital technologies on industrial and networked production.